Related Experiment Video
Updated: Oct 3, 2025

Monitoring Influenza Virus Survival Outside the Host Using Real-Time Cell Analysis
Published on: February 20, 2021
Quantifying the effect of government interventions and virus mutations on transmission advantage during COVID-19
Jingzhi Lou1, Hong Zheng1, Shi Zhao2
1JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Background:
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become a major public health threat. This study aims to evaluate the effect of virus mutation activities and policy interventions on COVID-19 transmissibility in Hong Kong.
Methods:
In this study, we integrated the genetic activities of multiple proteins, and quantified the effect of government interventions and mutation activities against the time-varying effective reproduction number Rt.
Findings:
We found a significantly positive relationship between Rt and mutation activities and a significantly negative relationship between Rt and government interventions. The results showed that the mutations that contributed most to the increase of Rt were from the spike, nucleocapsid and ORF1b genes. Policy of prohibition on group gathering was estimated to have the largest impact on mitigating virus transmissibility. The model explained 63.2% of the Rt variability with the R2.
Conclusion:
Our study provided a convenient framework to estimate the effect of genetic contribution and government interventions on pathogen transmissibility. We showed that the S, N and ORF1b protein had significant contribution to the increase of transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in Hong Kong, while restrictions of public gathering and suspension of face-to-face class are the most effective government interventions strategies.
Related Concept Videos
Viral Mutations
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
Causality in Epidemiology
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
Mutation, Gene Flow, and Genetic Drift

