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An introduction to Bayes' theorem and examples of its application to a diagnostic test and a clinical trial
Ha Thi Mai1, Steven He1, Evan Alexandrou1
1South Western Sydney Nursing and Midwifery Research Alliance, Ingham Institute, Liverpool Hospital, NSW, Australia.
Background:
The Bayesian approach to updating scientific knowledge involves using a probability distribution to describe a prior belief concerning an outcome of interest and combines this with some new information to create a posterior probability distribution to describe the updated current knowledge.
Aim:
To introduce the application of Bayes' theorem, using the conditional probability example of the Monty Hall problem and two examples of the clinical application of a Bayesian approach.
Discussion:
Bayesian approaches enable the incorporation of prior knowledge into the interpretation of research findings and summaries of evidence to date. Bayesian approaches are being incorporated into most clinical trials.
Conclusion:
Bayesian approaches to interpreting the results of a diagnostic test and a clinical trial highlight the utility of these approaches to clinical nursing and the application of evidence-based practice.
Implications For Practice:
Stimulation of an understanding and interest in the Bayesian approach among nurse researchers should lead to its wider application in nursing research.
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