Risk factors for necrotizing enterocolitis and establishment of prediction model of necrotizing enterocolitis in...

To investigate the risk factors for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) in preterm infants, and to establish a scoring model that can predict the development and guide the prevention of NEC.

A retrospective analysis was performed on the medical data of preterm infants who were admitted to the Department of Neonatology,Bethune First Hospital of Jilin University, from January 2011 to December 2020. These infants were divided into two groups: NEC (298 infants with Bell II stage or above) and non-NEC (300 infants). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the factors influencing the development of NEC. A nomogram for predicting the risk of NEC was established based on the factors. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and the index of concordance (C-index) were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the nomogram.

The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that grade ≥2 intracranial hemorrhage, peripherally inserted central catheterization, breast milk fortifier, transfusion of red cell suspension, hematocrit >49.65%, mean corpuscular volume >114.35 fL, and mean platelet volume >10.95 fL were independent risk factors for NEC (P<0.05), while the use of pulmonary surfactant, the use of probiotics, and the platelet distribution width >11.8 fL were protective factors against NEC (P<0.05). The nomogram showed good accuracy in predicting the risk of NEC, with a bootstrap-corrected C-index of 0.844. The nomogram had an optimal cutoff value of 171.02 in predicting the presence or absence of NEC, with a sensitivity of 74.7% and a specificity of 80.5%.

The prediction nomogram for the risk of NEC has a certain clinical value in early prediction, targeted prevention, and early intervention of NEC.