Shifting Peaks and Cumulative Consequences: Disqualifying Convictions in High-security Jobs.

Area of Science:

• Criminology
• Public Policy
• Employment Law

Background:

• Disqualifying conviction lists (DCLs) restrict employment for individuals with specific criminal convictions.
• Proposed legislative changes in the aviation sector may expand DCL criteria.

Purpose of the Study:

• Examine the association between existing DCL offenses and subsequent arrests.
• Assess the impact of proposed DCL expansions (arrests instead of convictions, longer look-back periods) on employment restrictions.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a large, single-state dataset with diverse criminal histories.
• Compared subsequent arrest rates across offense types and analyzed hazard patterns.
• Projected exclusion estimates under current and proposed DCL policies.

Main Results:

• Only half of disqualifying offenses showed consistently higher recidivism rates.
• Current DCLs could bar over 20% of the sample; proposed expansions could double this.
• Exclusions are age-graded, with a peak 'consequence age' of 28, shifting from a peak conviction age of 20.

Conclusions:

• Narrowing DCL offense criteria could reduce automatic disqualifications by nearly 20% (39,000 individuals).
• Effective DCL criteria should be predictive and narrowly applied, not broadly expanded.