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Social Change and Race-Specific Homicide Trajectories: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
Yunmei Lu1, Liying Luo2, Mateus Rennó Santos3
1University at Buffalo, State University of New York.
The Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency
|February 12, 2024
Summary
Homicide involvement trajectories for Black and White Americans show similar age patterns but greater volatility for Black cohorts. Recent cohorts reveal diverging trends, with Black populations experiencing a flat trend and White populations a declining one.
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Sociology
- Public Health
Background:
- Racial disparities persist in the U.S., with Black and White populations experiencing distinct social realities.
- Understanding these differences is crucial for addressing social inequalities and their impact on health outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine cohort patterns and life-course trajectories of homicide offending and victimization among Black and White populations in the U.S.
- To analyze race-specific trends in homicide involvement over four decades.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from Supplemental Homicide Reports (1976-2018).
- Employed Age-Period-Cohort-Interaction (APC-I) models for race-specific trend analysis.
- Investigated offending and victimization patterns.
Main Results:
- Observed comparable age, period, and cohort effects on homicide involvement for both racial groups.
- Found significantly higher volatility in cohort effects for Black individuals compared to White individuals.
- Identified divergent cohort trends for those born after 1990: a downward trend for White cohorts and a flat trend for Black cohorts.
Conclusions:
- Black cohorts' homicide involvement is more sensitive to external social changes (e.g., economic shifts, epidemics).
- An increasing racial gap in homicide involvement is evident in recent birth cohorts.
- Suggests distinct pathways influencing homicide involvement based on race and cohort.
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