Uncertainties in evapotranspiration projections associated with estimation methods and CMIP6 GCMs for South Korea
Young Hoon Song1, Eun-Sung Chung1, Shamsuddin Shahid2
1Faculty of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 01811, Republic of Korea.
The Science of the Total Environment
|February 21, 2022
Summary
This study compared three potential evapotranspiration (PET) methods, finding Penman-Monteith (PM) most reliable for future climate change projections in South Korea. Hargreaves and Samani (HS) showed the most modest increase and highest uncertainty.
Area of Science:
- Hydrology and Climate Science
- Environmental Modeling
Background:
- Accurate simulation of potential evapotranspiration (PET) is crucial for understanding hydrological processes and climate change impacts.
- Global Climate Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) provide essential climate data for future projections.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the performance of Thornthwaite (TW), Hargreaves and Samani (HS), and Penman-Monteith (PM) methods for simulating historical and future PET in South Korea.
- To assess the changes and uncertainties in PET under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using CMIP6 GCMs.
Main Methods:
- Utilized climate variables from CMIP6 GCMs for historical (1985-2014) and future periods (2031-2060, 2071-2100).
- Evaluated PET simulations using five metrics across ten stations in South Korea.
- Analyzed PET changes under SSPs 2-4.5 and 5-8.5.
Main Results:
- All three PET methods demonstrated high performance for historical climate data.
- PET is projected to increase in both near and far future periods across both SSPs.
- The Penman-Monteith (PM) method indicated the largest PET increase and highest reliability, while Hargreaves and Samani (HS) showed the most modest increase and highest uncertainty.
Conclusions:
- The Penman-Monteith method is recommended for reliable future PET estimations in South Korea, offering the lowest uncertainty.
- Understanding PET changes is vital for calculating future hydrological factors like drought indices.
- This research provides valuable insights for selecting appropriate PET methods in climate change impact studies.
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