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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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Emergent constraints on future precipitation changes
Hideo Shiogama1, Masahiro Watanabe2, Hyungjun Kim3,4,5
1Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan. shiogama.hideo@nies.go.jp.
Nature
|February 24, 2022
Summary
Future climate models show reduced uncertainty in global precipitation change (ΔP) projections. By analyzing recent trends, scientists constrained precipitation projections, offering more reliable data for impact assessments.
Area of Science:
- Climate science
- Earth system modeling
- Atmospheric science
Background:
- Global mean precipitation change (ΔP) projections exhibit higher uncertainty than global mean temperature changes (ΔT).
- Observational constraints for ΔP are less studied than for ΔT, often complicated by aerosol influences.
- Existing Earth-system models show significant variability in future precipitation predictions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To reduce uncertainties in future global precipitation change (ΔP) projections using observational constraints.
- To establish reliable ranges for ΔP under medium greenhouse gas scenarios.
- To improve the accuracy of climate model outputs for impact assessments.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 ensembles.
- Analyzed correlations between ΔP (2051-2100) and recent global mean temperature trends (post-1980).
- Examined correlations between ΔP and recent precipitation trends, excluding tropical land areas.
Main Results:
- The upper bound of ΔP projections was lowered from 6.2% to 5.2-5.7% under a medium greenhouse gas scenario.
- ΔP for 2051-2100 showed significant correlation with post-1980 global mean temperature trends.
- Variance of ΔP was reduced by 8-30% based on observational constraints and recent trends.
Conclusions:
- Observationally constrained ΔP ranges provide more reliable estimates for future precipitation changes.
- The study successfully reduced uncertainty in climate model projections of precipitation.
- Improved ΔP projections will enhance the accuracy of climate change impact assessments.
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