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Evaluation of the Potential Risk of Mortality from SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Hospitalized Patients According to the
Jose Roberto Gutierrez-Camacho1, Lorena Avila-Carrasco1, Alberto Murillo-Ruíz-Esparza2
1Molecular Medicine Laboratory, Unidad Académica de Medicina Humana y Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Autónoma de Zacatecas, Zacatecas 98160, Mexico.
Insights
The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) effectively predicts mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. A higher CCI score, particularly above 31.69, significantly increases the risk of death from COVID-19 complications.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Clinical Medicine
Background:
- COVID-19 pandemic poses a significant global health threat.
- Identifying mortality predictors in hospitalized COVID-19 patients is crucial.
- The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) is a potential tool for assessing mortality risk.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) as a predictor of mortality in COVID-19 hospitalized patients.
- To assess the utility of CCI in identifying high-risk individuals for COVID-19 mortality.
Main Methods:
- Study conducted in Zacatecas, Mexico, with 705 hospitalized patients suspected of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
- Clinical data collected, and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) scores calculated.
- CCI's predictive value for mortality in COVID-19 patients was evaluated.
Main Results:
- 377 patients tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.
- Obesity was linked to increased intubation risk (OR = 2.59).
- Higher CCI scores were observed in non-survivors (p < 0.001).
- A CCI cutoff > 31.69 showed an area under the ROC curve of 0.75, with 63.6% sensitivity and 87.7% specificity.
- CCI > 31.69 increased mortality odds by 12.5 times (p < 0.001).
Conclusions:
- The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) is a suitable tool for predicting mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
- A CCI score > 31.69 indicates increased risk of death.
- Precautionary measures are vital for hospitalized COVID-19 patients with comorbidities due to their vulnerability.
Abstract:
Background: The pandemic of COVID-19 has represented a major threat to global public health in the last century and therefore to identify predictors of mortality among COVID-19 hospitalized patients is widely justified. The aim of this study was to evaluate the possible usefulness of Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) as mortality predictor in patients hospitalized because COVID-19. Methods: This study was carried out in Zacatecas, Mexico, and it included 705 hospitalized patients with suspected of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Clinical data were collected, and the CCI score was calculated online using the calculator from the Sociedad Andaluza de Medicina Intensiva y Unidades Coronarias; the result was evaluated as mortality predictor among the patients with COVID-19. Results: 377 patients were positive for SARS-COV-2. Obesity increased the risk of intubation among the study population (odds ratio (OR) = 2.59; 95 CI: 1.36-4.92; p = 0.003). The CCI values were higher in patients who died because of COVID-19 complications than those observed in patients who survived (p < 0.001). Considering a CCI cutoff > 31.69, the area under the ROC curve was 0.75, with a sensitivity and a specificity of 63.6% and 87.7%, respectively. Having a CCI value > 31.69 increased the odds of death by 12.5 times among the study population (95% CI: 7.3-21.4; p < 0.001). Conclusions: The CCI is a suitable tool for the prediction of mortality in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. The presence of comorbidities in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 reflected as CCI > 31.69 increased the risk of death among the study population, so it is important to take precautionary measures in patients due to their condition and their increased vulnerability to SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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