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An Efficient Coalescent Epoch Model for Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference.

Remco R Bouckaert1

  • 1School of Computer Science, University of Auckland, Thomas Building, Room 407 3 Symonds St Auckland 1010 New Zealand.

Systematic Biology
|February 25, 2022
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

We introduce Bayesian Integrated Coalescent Epoch PlotS (BICEPS), a novel method for coalescent model inference. BICEPS enables accurate demographic reconstruction and analysis of population size changes, outperforming traditional models.

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Computational phylogenetics
  • Population genetics

Background:

  • Coalescent models are fundamental for inferring population histories from genetic data.
  • Existing methods like the Bayesian skyline model have limitations in efficiently inferring demographic parameters.
  • Accurate demographic reconstruction is crucial for understanding population dynamics, bottlenecks, and evolutionary trajectories.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop an efficient inference method for coalescent epoch models.
  • To improve the accuracy and convergence of demographic inference, especially for complex population histories.
  • To provide a more powerful alternative to existing Bayesian phylogenetic models.

Main Methods:

  • Integration of population size parameters to simplify model inference.
  • Development of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) proposals for enhanced tree sampling.
  • Application of the Bayesian Integrated Coalescent Epoch PlotS (BICEPS) framework within the BEAST 2 software.

Main Results:

  • BICEPS successfully integrates out population size parameters while still enabling posterior sampling.
  • The method allows for detailed demographic reconstruction, including bottlenecks and full population histories.
  • Simulations confirm the power and correctness of BICEPS, showing improved performance over standard methods.
  • Application to SARS-CoV-2 genomic data demonstrates BICEPS's ability to handle analyses that challenge traditional approaches.

Conclusions:

  • BICEPS offers a more robust and efficient approach to Bayesian phylogenetic inference of demographic history.
  • The method enhances the analysis of population dynamics and evolutionary processes.
  • BICEPS is available as an open-source package for BEAST 2, featuring a user-friendly interface.