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Published on: May 7, 2015
BAR Score Performance in Predicting Survival after Living Donor Liver Transplantation: A Single-Center Retrospective
Talaat Zakareya1, Mohammad Taha2, Hassan Elzohry1
1Hepatology and Gastroenterology Department, National Liver Institute, Menoufia University, Shebeen El-Kom, Egypt.
Methods:
146 adult liver transplant recipients were included. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine the independent predictors of survival at 3 months, 1 year, and 5 years. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the BAR score was plotted, and the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) was calculated. Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank test were used to compare survival above and below the best cutoff values.
Results:
The mean age was 52.45 ± 8.54 years, and 59.6% were males. The survival rates were 89, 78.8, and 72% at 3 months, 1 year, and 5 years, respectively. The BAR score demonstrated a clinically significant value in the prediction of 3-month (AUROC = 0.89), 1-year (AUROC = 0.76), and 5-year survival (AUROC = 0.71). Among the investigated factors associated with survival, BAR score <10 points was the only independent predictor of 3-month (OR 7.34, p < 0.0001), 1-year (OR 3.37, p=0.001), and 5-year survival (OR 2.83, p=0.044).
Conclusions:
BAR is a simple and easily applicable scoring system that could significantly predict short- and long-term survival after LDLT. A large multicenter study is warranted to validate our results in the Egyptian population.
