Prognostic Scoring System Development for Malignant Spinal Cord Compression

Although many prognostic scoring systems have been used to predict survival of malignant spinal cord compression (MSCC) patients, some previous data have shown that the accuracy of the scoring system remains problematic. Current advanced cancer therapies may influence the altered survival predictions. The aim of this study was to develop a new prognostic scoring system for higher accuracy of survival prediction in patients with malignant spinal cord compression (MSCC).

Data were collected from 89 patients diagnosed with MSCC in 2018-2020. Potential clinical factors were analyzed using univariate and multivariate Cox's regression analysis. The selected logistic coefficients were transformed into a prognostic predictive scoring system. Internal validation was performed using the bootstrapping procedure.

According to multivariate Cox's regression analysis, 9 potential prognostic factors were obtained, i.e. Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte ratio >3.6, breast cancer, lung cancer, other types of cancer (except prostate cancer), male, complete paralysis, spinal metastases in three levels, hypercalcemia, and no further systemic treatment. The data was developed into a Buddhasothorn Hospital Malignant Spinal Cord Compression (BSH-MSCC) score with an interval of 0-52 points (AUC = 0.77; AUC to predict short-term survival = 0.93). When using the cut-off point > 18 to predict short-term survival, AUC = 0.84, sensitivity = 81.5%, specificity = 85.7%, PPV = 89.8%, and NPV = 75.0%. Internal validation with 1,000 bootstrap resampling showed good discrimination.

BSH-MSCC score had a simplified score and high accuracy. The new tool is more accurate and can help decision-making for better treatment using a multidisciplinary approach.