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Pilot Project for a Web-Based Dynamic Nomogram to Predict Survival 1 Year After Hip Fracture Surgery: Retrospective
Graeme McLeod1,2, Iain Kennedy1, Eilidh Simpson3
1Department of Anaesthesia, Ninewells Hospital, National Health Service Tayside, Dundee, United Kingdom.
Background:
Hip fracture is associated with high mortality. Identification of individual risk informs anesthetic and surgical decision-making and can reduce the risk of death. However, interpreting mathematical models and applying them in clinical practice can be difficult. There is a need to simplify risk indices for clinicians and laypeople alike.
Objective:
Our primary objective was to develop a web-based nomogram for prediction of survival up to 365 days after hip fracture surgery.
Methods:
We collected data from 329 patients. Our variables included sex; age; BMI; white cell count; levels of lactate, creatinine, hemoglobin, and C-reactive protein; physical status according to the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification System; socioeconomic status; duration of surgery; total time in the operating room; side of surgery; and procedure urgency. Thereafter, we internally calibrated and validated a Cox proportional hazards model of survival 365 days after hip fracture surgery; logistic regression models of survival 30, 120, and 365 days after surgery; and a binomial model. To present the models on a laptop, tablet, or mobile phone in a user-friendly way, we built an app using Shiny (RStudio). The app showed a drop-down box for model selection and horizontal sliders for data entry, model summaries, and prediction and survival plots. A slider represented patient follow-up over 365 days.
Results:
Of the 329 patients, 24 (7.3%) died within 30 days of surgery, 65 (19.8%) within 120 days, and 94 (28.6%) within 365 days. In all models, the independent predictors of mortality were age, BMI, creatinine level, and lactate level. The logistic model also incorporated white cell count as a predictor. The Cox proportional hazards model showed that mortality differed as follows: age 80 vs 60 years had a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.6 (95% CI 0.3-1.1), a plasma lactate level of 2 vs 1 mmol/L had an HR of 2.4 (95% CI 1.5-3.9), and a plasma creatinine level of 60 vs 90 mol/L had an HR of 2.3 (95% CI 1.3-3.9).
Conclusions:
In conclusion, we provide an easy-to-read web-based nomogram that predicts survival up to 365 days after hip fracture. The Cox proportional hazards model and logistic models showed good discrimination, with concordance index values of 0.732 and 0.781, respectively.
