Modeling coffee (Coffea arabica L.) climate suitability under current and future scenario in Jimma zone, Ethiopia

Climate suitability is important for coffee (Coffea arabica L.) production in climate variability-prone regions like Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to assess the current and future climate suitability for the species in the Jimma zone under moderate (RCP4.5) and worst (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios. Field surveys and Worldclim and Paleoclim databases were used to capture 224 C. arabica species' location points and 9 bioclimatic data, respectively. The MaxEnt model with integration of ArcGis was used to simulate and characterize these data. The diagnostic outcome of the model showed that the anticipated climate change will increase the areas of suitability in the first and third coffee sub-zones, while there will be a decrease in the second sub-zone. Net suitability under the RCP4.5 would be decreased by 4.75 and 6.09% in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. Indeed, under the RCP8.5, total suitability will be expected to be increased by 2.52% and 2.25% in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. For the 2050s and 2070s, the suitability gap between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 was estimated to be 401 km² and 1567 km², respectively. To summarize, with the exemption of RCP 8.5 within the 2070s, the suitability would be improved and come up short in all circumstances. To keep Arabica coffee in its original habitat, we suggest that the entire climate change adjustment procedures that are prearranged under the RCP4.5 ought to be executed to sustain the crop trees in its origin. Otherwise, moving the crop plant from impeded areas to suitable ones is crucial.