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National Hip Fracture Incidence - Past, Present and Future Projections
L Al Azawi1, A J Hughes2, J M Queally2
1School of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland.
Irish Medical Journal
|March 13, 2022
Summary
Hip fractures are a growing concern, with numbers expected to rise significantly in Ireland. This study projects at least a 158.8% increase in hip fractures by 2046, necessitating future healthcare planning.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Public Health
- Orthopedics
Background:
- Hip fractures represent a major cause of morbidity and mortality.
- The incidence of hip fractures is projected to increase due to an aging global population.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the current and future incidence of hip fractures in Ireland.
- To project hip fracture rates based on predicted population growth up to 2046.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Irish Hip Fracture Database to identify patients aged over 60 from 2017-2019.
- Incorporated population data and projections from the Central Statistics Office.
- Calculated projected hip fracture incidence based on stable age and gender-specific rates.
Main Results:
- The average incidence of hip fractures in those over 60 in Ireland was 389.3 per 100,000 between 2017-2019.
- Annual hip fracture cases are projected to increase by at least 158.8% by 2046.
- Age and gender-specific incidence rates have remained stable.
Conclusions:
- Despite stable incidence rates, a substantial rise in hip fractures is anticipated in Ireland.
- Future healthcare budgets require strategic resource allocation to address the increasing burden of hip fractures.
