Development of a predictive model for the shelf-life of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus)

Despite its commercial value, the shelflife of the Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) during refrigerated storage was poorly investigated. In this regard, the Quality Index Method (QIM) was proposed as a suitable scoring system for freshness and quality sensorial estimation of fishery products. This study aims to develop a deterministic mathematical model based on dynamic temperatures conditions and a successive statistical analysis of the results obtained. This model will be exploited to predict the shelf-life of the Atlantic mackerel based on specific storage temperatures. A total of 60 fresh fishes were subdivided into two groups and respectively stored in ice for 12 days at a constant temperature of 1±0.5°C (Group A) and a fluctuating temperature ranging between 1 and 7°C (Group B). Microbiological analysis and sensory evaluation through the QIM were performed on each fish at regular time intervals. A critical value of 6 Log cfu/g of spoilage bacteria (mainly psychotropic) associated with a significant decay of the sensorial characteristics was exceeded after 9 days of storage for Group A and 3 days for Group B. A reliable prediction of fish freshness was obtained by modelling the QIM as a function of the spoilage bacteria behaviour. A coefficient β of correlation was determined to convert the spoilage bacteria load into a Quality Index score. The adoption of mathematical predictive models to assess microbial behaviour under different environmental conditions is an interesting tool for food industries to maximize production and reduce waste.