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Stroke unit demand in Norway - present and future estimates.

Fredrik A Dahl1,2, Mathias Barra3,4,5, Kashif W Faiz1

  • 1The Health Services Research Unit (HØKH), Akershus University Hospital HF, Sykehusveien 25, 1478, Lørenskog, Norway.

BMC Health Services Research
|March 15, 2022
PubMed
Summary

Demand for stroke unit (SU) beds is projected to increase due to more stroke mimics, despite falling stroke incidence. Health authorities should plan for a potential 50% rise in SU bed capacity needs.

Keywords:
Health care managementIncidenceLength-of-stayRegression modelStrokeStroke mimicsStroke unit

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Area of Science:

  • Neurology
  • Healthcare Management
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Timely admission to a stroke unit (SU) is crucial for all stroke patients.
  • Most patients with suspected strokes, including stroke mimics (SM), are admitted to SUs.
  • Estimating current and future SU bed capacity demand is essential for healthcare planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the current demand for stroke unit (SU) bed capacity.
  • To project future SU bed capacity demand from 2020 to 2040.
  • To inform healthcare authorities about potential capacity needs.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Norwegian Patient Registry data (2010-2015) for stroke incidence and length of stay (LOS) trends.
  • Developed models for SM incidence and LOS using hospital data (2008-2020).
  • Integrated models with population predictions to estimate regional SU demands and conducted a survey for available beds.

Main Results:

  • In 2020, 361 SU beds were available against an estimated demand of 302.
  • Models predict a decrease in stroke incidence, but rising SMs will increase demand to an estimated 316 beds by 2040.
  • A scenario with constant 2020 stroke incidence projected a 2040 demand of 480 beds.

Conclusions:

  • Decreasing stroke incidence is offset by an increasing number of stroke mimics (SMs).
  • Significant uncertainty exists regarding the future trend of decreasing stroke incidence.
  • Health authorities are advised to plan for a potential 50% increase in SU bed capacity demand.