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The Ottawa 3DY Predicts Mortality in a Prospective Cohort Study
Philip Donald St John1,2, Frank Joseph Molnar3
1Section of Geriatric Medicine, Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB.
Canadian Geriatrics Journal : CGJ
|March 21, 2022
Summary
The Ottawa 3DY (O3DY) cognitive measure predicts mortality in older adults. While effective, its predictive discrimination is lower than the MMSE and 3MS cognitive tests.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Cognitive Science
- Public Health
Background:
- The Ottawa 3DY (O3DY) is a straightforward cognitive assessment tool.
- Cognitive impairment is a significant concern in aging populations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the Ottawa 3DY's (O3DY) ability to predict mortality in individuals aged 65 and older.
- To compare the predictive discrimination of the O3DY against established cognitive tests, specifically the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the Modified MMSE (3MS).
Main Methods:
- A population-based cohort study involving 1,751 participants aged 65+ was analyzed.
- Data collected included the O3DY, MMSE, 3MS, demographics, and comorbidities, with a five-year mortality follow-up.
- Logistic regression and Receiver Operator Curve (ROC) analysis with Area Under the ROC (AUROC) were used to assess mortality prediction and test discrimination.
Main Results:
- The O3DY demonstrated a significant association with mortality, with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.33 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.72).
- The AUROC values indicated that the 3MS (0.66) and MMSE (0.65) had better discrimination for mortality than the O3DY (0.60).
Conclusions:
- The O3DY serves as a valid predictor of long-term mortality in older adults.
- Despite its predictive capability, the O3DY's discriminative performance is less robust compared to the MMSE and 3MS.
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