Prediction of Adverse Post-Infarction Left Ventricular Remodeling Using a Multivariate Regression Model

Background. In order to provide personalized medicine and improve cardiovascular outcomes, a method for predicting adverse left ventricular remodeling (ALVR) after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is needed. Methods. A total of 125 STEMI patients, mean age 51.2 (95% CI 49.6; 52.7) years were prospectively enrolled. The clinical, laboratory, and instrumental examinations were performed between the 7th and 9th day, and after 24 and 48 weeks, including plasma analysis of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), transthoracic echocardiography, analysis of left ventricular-arterial coupling, applanation tonometry, ultrasound examination of the common carotid arteries with RF signal amplification. Results. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to echocardiography: “ALVR” (n = 63)—end-diastolic volume index (EDVI) >20% and/or end-systolic volume index (ESVI) >15% after 24 weeks compared with initial values; “non-ALVR” (n = 62)—EDVI <20% and ESVI <15%. In the ALVR group, hard endpoints (recurrent myocardial infarction, unstable angina, hospitalization for decompensated heart failure, ventricular arrhythmias, cardiac surgery, cardiovascular death) were detected in 19 people (30%). In the non-ALVR group, hard endpoints were noted in 3 patients (5%). The odds ratio of developing an adverse outcome in ALVR vs. non-ALVR group was 8.5 (95% CI 2.4−30.5) (p = 0.0004). According to the multivariate analysis, the contribution of each of the indicators to the relative risk (RR) of adverse cardiac remodeling: waist circumference, RR = 1.02 (95% CI 1.001−1.05) (p = 0.042), plasma BNP—RR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.05−3.13) (p = 0.033), arterial elastance to left ventricular end-systolic elastance (Ea/Ees)—RR = 1.96 (95% CI 1.11−3.46) (p = 0.020). Conclusion. Determining ALVR status in early stages of the disease can accurately predict and stratify the risk of adverse outcomes in STEMI patients.