Future wildfire extent and frequency determined by the longest fire-conducive weather spell

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Science
• Forestry

Background:

• Understanding climate change impacts on fire activity is crucial.
• Existing prediction models lack high confidence.
• Fire-conducive weather spells are key indicators.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project future fire activity parameters: annual area burned (AAB), annual number of fires (ANF), and annual maximum fire size (MFS).
• To establish linkages between fire-conducive weather spells and fire activity.
• To analyze spatial patterns of change across Canadian ecozones.

Main Methods:

• Utilizing the longest duration of fire-conducive weather spells.
• Establishing statistical linkages with fire activity parameters.
• Projecting AAB, ANF, and MFS into the future.

Main Results:

• Spatial patterns of change for AAB, ANF, and MFS are consistent across Canadian ecozones.
• Areas with historically lower fire activity may experience higher rates of change.
• By the end of the century, AAB and MFS are projected to increase by approximately four and five times the baseline, respectively.
• ANF is projected to nearly double.

Conclusions:

• Climate change is projected to significantly increase fire activity metrics.
• The spatial distribution of fire risk will likely shift, with lower activity areas potentially seeing greater proportional increases.
• Reliable projections for future fire management are becoming more attainable.