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Area of Science:

  • Space Medicine
  • Risk Assessment
  • Human Spaceflight

Background:

  • Human spaceflight is expanding to the Moon and Mars.
  • Extended missions increase astronaut health risks beyond Low Earth Orbit.
  • Quantifying medical risk is crucial for mission success.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate and compare medical risks for varying spaceflight mission durations.
  • To utilize the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) for evidence-based risk assessment.
  • To inform risk managers and mission planners for future deep space missions.

Main Methods:

  • Employed the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tool.
  • Conducted Monte-Carlo simulations to quantify medical risk.
  • Compared risk estimates across different mission durations to the Moon and Mars.

Main Results:

  • Provided quantified medical risk estimates for deep space missions.
  • Demonstrated the increasing proportion of medical risk with mission duration.
  • Highlighted the complexity and limitations in current medical risk estimation.

Conclusions:

  • The IMM offers a reasonable bounding estimate for medical risk in lunar and Martian missions.
  • Results aid in prioritizing medical research and investments.
  • Informed cost-benefit analyses for mission capabilities and safety.