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Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward.

Adam R Hanbury-Brown1, Rachel E Ward1, Lara M Kueppers1,2

  • 1The Energy and Resources Group, University of California, 345 Giannini Hall, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.

The New Phytologist
|April 1, 2022
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Earth system models need better forest regeneration predictions for climate change. Improving tree seedling survival and dispersal is crucial for accurate ecosystem dynamics and forest resilience modeling.

Keywords:
Earth system modelsforest regenerationreproductive allocationtree recruitmentvegetation demographic modelsvegetation dynamics

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Area of Science:

  • Earth system science
  • Ecology
  • Forestry

Background:

  • Earth system models (ESMs) are vital for predicting global climate, hydrology, and ecosystem dynamics.
  • Vegetation demographic approaches in ESMs explicitly model tree growth, mortality, and recruitment, enhancing projections of forest vulnerability and resilience.
  • Regeneration processes are critical for forest structure, composition, disturbance recovery, and climate-driven range shifts, yet are underrepresented in current models.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To critically review the representation of forest regeneration processes in current Earth system vegetation demographic models.
  • To identify key areas for improvement in simulating regeneration to enhance ESM accuracy.
  • To emphasize the importance of regeneration for integrating ecological understanding into global change predictions.

Main Methods:

  • A critical review of existing literature and current vegetation demographic models.
  • Analysis of regeneration processes including reproductive allocation, dispersal, seed survival, germination, and seedling establishment.
  • Identification of data needs and algorithmic improvements for global-scale simulations.

Main Results:

  • Current ESMs inadequately simulate crucial regeneration processes like reproductive allocation, dispersal, seed survival, germination, and seedling establishment.
  • Significant improvements are needed in parameter values and algorithms for these processes.
  • Regeneration strategies adapted to wind, fire, and anthropogenic disturbances require better model integration.

Conclusions:

  • Enhancing the simulation of forest regeneration is essential for improving Earth system model predictions of future forest dynamics and global change impacts.
  • Future research must focus on data synthesis, targeted field data collection, and developing novel model algorithms for regeneration processes.
  • Vegetation demographic models offer a powerful framework for integrating ecological knowledge into Earth system science, with regeneration as a key component.