Mapping cerebral atrophic trajectory from amnestic mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients suffer progressive cerebral atrophy before dementia onset. However, the region-specific atrophic processes and the influences of age and apolipoprotein E (APOE) on atrophic trajectory are still unclear. By mapping the region-specific nonlinear atrophic trajectory of whole cerebrum from amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) to AD based on longitudinal structural magnetic resonance imaging data from Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database, we unraveled a quadratic accelerated atrophic trajectory of 68 cerebral regions from aMCI to AD, especially in the superior temporal pole, caudate, and hippocampus. Besides, interaction analyses demonstrated that APOE ε4 carriers had faster atrophic rates than noncarriers in 8 regions, including the caudate, hippocampus, insula, etc.; younger patients progressed faster than older patients in 32 regions, especially for the superior temporal pole, hippocampus, and superior temporal gyrus; and 15 regions demonstrated complex interaction among age, APOE, and disease progression, including the caudate, hippocampus, etc. (P < 0.05/68, Bonferroni correction). Finally, Cox proportional hazards regression model based on the identified region-specific biomarkers could effectively predict the time to AD conversion within 10 years. In summary, cerebral atrophic trajectory mapping could help a comprehensive understanding of AD development and offer potential biomarkers for predicting AD conversion.