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Forecasting the physician assistant/associate workforce: 2020-2035.

Roderick S Hooker1, Violet Kulo2, Gerald Kayingo3

  • 1Northern Arizona University, Phoenix, USA.

Future Healthcare Journal
|April 4, 2022
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Physician assistant (PA) workforce projections indicate a 35% growth by 2035. This study forecasts the PA census to reach between 204,000 and 214,000 clinically active professionals.

Keywords:
PA supplyhealth workforcephysician associatespredictive modellingworkforce modelling

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Area of Science:

  • Healthcare Workforce Analysis
  • Medical Professional Forecasting
  • Physician Assistant Studies

Background:

  • Physician assistants (PAs) are vital healthcare professionals expanding access to care globally.
  • PAs play a crucial role in addressing gaps in medical provider supply and demand.
  • This study presents a forecasting project for the PA medical workforce from 2020 to 2035.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict the future census of physician assistants (PAs) in the medical workforce.
  • To project the growth of the PA profession over a 15-year period (2020-2035).
  • To provide data-driven insights into the evolving PA landscape.

Main Methods:

  • Microsimulation modeling was employed, using 2020 clinically active PA numbers as the baseline.
  • Annual growth was predicted using graduation rates and PA program expansion data.
  • Attrition estimates were incorporated, and two distinct models (BLS and NCCPA data) were utilized.

Main Results:

  • In 2020, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimated 125,280 PAs, while the National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants (NCCPA) estimated 148,560.
  • The BLS-based model projected approximately 204,243 clinically active PAs by 2035.
  • The NCCPA-based model forecasted 214,248 PAs in clinical practice by 2035.

Conclusions:

  • A predictive model utilizing four data sources estimates the 2035 PA census to be between 204,000 and 214,000.
  • This represents a projected growth rate of approximately 35% for clinically active PAs.
  • The findings highlight significant expansion in the PA workforce over the forecast period.