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Forecasting the physician assistant/associate workforce: 2020-2035
Roderick S Hooker1, Violet Kulo2, Gerald Kayingo3
1Northern Arizona University, Phoenix, USA.
Background:
Physician assistant/associates (PAs) are healthcare professionals whose roles expand universal access across many nations. PAs fill medical provider supply and demand gaps. Our paper reports a forecasting project to predict the likely census of PAs in the medical workforce spanning from 2020 to 2035.
Methods:
Microsimulation modelling of the American PA workforce was performed using the number of clinically active PAs employed in 2020 as the baseline. Graduation rates and PA programme expansion were parameters used to predict annual growth; attrition estimates balanced the equation. Two models, one based on data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and another based on National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants (NCCPA) data were used to estimate future annual PA census numbers.
Results:
As of 2020, the BLS estimated 125,280 PAs were in the medical workforce; the NCCPA estimate was 148,560 PAs in active practice. The BLS model predicted approximately 204,243 clinically active PAs by 2035; the NCCPA-based model predicted 214,248 PAs in clinical practice.
Conclusions:
A PA predictive model based on four data sources projects that the 2035 census of clinically active PAs to be between 204,000 and 214,000: a growth rate of approximately 35%.
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