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Identifying and Estimating Causal Moderation for Treated and Targeted Subgroups.

Nianbo Dong1, Benjamin Kelcey2, Jessaca Spybrook3

  • 1University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

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Summary

This study introduces the average moderated treatment effect on the treated (AMTS) for targeted subgroups, offering a more policy-relevant alternative to the average moderated treatment effect across the entire sample (AMTE). The AMTS is identified under weaker assumptions, providing valuable insights for subgroup analysis.

Keywords:
Average moderated treatment effect across the entire sample (AMTE)average moderated treatment effect on targeted subgroups (AMTS)average moderated treatment effect on the treated (AMTT)generalized propensity scorespotential outcome

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Area of Science:

  • Causal inference
  • Econometrics
  • Statistical modeling

Background:

  • Existing research on moderation effects primarily examines the average moderated treatment effect across the entire sample (AMTE).
  • There is a gap in understanding moderated treatment effects within specific subgroups, such as the average moderated treatment effect on the treated (AMTT) and the average moderated treatment effect on subgroups (AMTS).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and theoretically frame the average moderated treatment effect on subgroups (AMTS) within the potential outcomes framework.
  • To delineate the assumptions required for the causal identification of AMTS.
  • To propose a generalized propensity score method for estimating AMTS.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a theoretical framework for AMTS under the potential outcomes model.
  • Utilizing Bayes Theorem to derive weights for a generalized propensity score method.
  • Estimation of AMTS using weighted regression techniques.

Main Results:

  • The AMTS is identified under weaker assumptions compared to AMTE.
  • AMTS often reflects more policy-relevant effects than AMTE.
  • Empirical illustration using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study highlights differences among estimands.

Conclusions:

  • The AMTS provides a valuable alternative for analyzing moderation effects in targeted subgroups.
  • The proposed generalized propensity score method offers a practical tool for estimating AMTS.
  • Future research should explore further applications and extensions of AMTS.