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Rainfall shocks, child mortality, and water infrastructure.

Sundar Ponnusamy1

  • 1Centre for Health Economics, Monash University, Caulfield East, Victoria, Australia.

Health Economics
|April 7, 2022
PubMed
Summary

Extreme rainfall shocks significantly impact child mortality globally, especially in low-income countries. Dam infrastructure offers some protection in vulnerable regions, but effects can persist for years.

Keywords:
child mortalityrainfall shockswater infrastructure

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Public Health
  • Development Economics

Background:

  • Child mortality remains a critical global health challenge.
  • Climate variability, specifically rainfall shocks, is increasingly recognized as a significant environmental determinant of health outcomes.
  • Developing countries, particularly low-income countries (LICs) and those reliant on agriculture, are disproportionately vulnerable to climate-related impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the causal relationship between sub-national rainfall shocks and child mortality across a global sample of developing countries.
  • To identify which populations and regions are most susceptible to adverse effects of rainfall variability.
  • To assess potential mitigating factors, such as infrastructure, and the persistence of these impacts.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized sub-national data from a global set of developing countries.
  • Employed econometric methods to establish the causal link between rainfall shocks (positive and negative) and child mortality rates.
  • Conducted robustness checks, including controls for fertility, migration, and other relevant factors.

Main Results:

  • Negative rainfall shocks are associated with increased child mortality, while positive shocks lead to decreased mortality.
  • Low-income countries and agricultural-dependent economies experience the most severe impacts from negative rainfall shocks.
  • In LICs, downstream districts with dams show a ~60% mitigation of negative shock impacts, particularly in poorer areas.
  • The effects of rainfall shocks are persistent, lasting up to three years.

Conclusions:

  • Rainfall shocks represent a significant, quantifiable threat to child survival in developing nations.
  • Targeted interventions, such as dam infrastructure in vulnerable regions, can buffer negative impacts, especially for impoverished communities.
  • Climate change adaptation strategies must consider the long-term and widespread consequences of rainfall variability on child health.