The new normal: Covid-19 risk perceptions and support for continuing restrictions past vaccinations

I test the possibility that over-estimating negative consequences of COVID-19 (e.g., hospitalizations, deaths, and threats to children) will be associated with stronger support the 'new normal' (i.e., continuation of restrictions for an undefined period starting with wide-spread access to vaccines and completed vaccinations of vulnerable people). The new normal was assessed by endorsing practices such as vaccine passports, travel restrictions, mandatory masking, continuing contact tracing, and pursuing elimination. Results are based on five samples (N = 1,233 from April 2021 and N = 264 from January 2022) and suggest that people over-estimate COVID-19 risks to children and healthy people, as evidenced by median estimates that 5% of all global deaths were children, 29% were generally healthy people under 65, and that a healthy person under the age of 65 has 5% chance of dying from COVID-19. Over-estimates observed in this study align with those based on representative samples, and they were consistently related to stronger support for the new normal. This relationship emerged when participants estimated risks with percentages (core indicators) and indicated the extent to which risk-based statements are true/supported with evidence or false/unsupported (alternative indicators). People were notably more likely to support continuing restrictions if they believed that COVID-19 risk and risk mitigation tactics are true, even when they are not (e.g., children need to be prioritized for boosters). These relationships persisted when considering competing explanations (political ideology, statistics literacy, belief in conspiracy theories). I trace these effects to well-meaning efforts to prevent under-estimation. Public policy and people's perceptions of risks are intertwined, where even inaccurate judgments may influence decisions. Failure to combat all misinformation with equal rigor may jeopardize the restoration of the social and economic life essential for building adaptive post-pandemic societies.