Will China's carbon intensity achieve its policy goals by 2030? Dynamic scenario analysis based on STIRPAT-PLS...

China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, and the Chinese government proposes to reduce carbon intensity (CI) by 65% in 2030 compared with 2005. However, literature analyzing whether the current emission reduction policies can effectively help CI reach the policy target is rare. China's CI data from 1978 to 2019, divided into phases using the Bai and Perron (BP) breakpoint test, are evaluated in this study. A dynamic scenario simulation analysis using the STIRPAT-PLS framework and Monte Carlo simulation is established. The dynamic trajectory of CI is observed, and its possible value in 2030 is determined. Finally, a dynamic sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the contribution of different influencing factors. According to research, from 1978 to 2019, CI has three structural breakpoints, 1992, 2002, and 2008, resulting in four specific growth tendencies. Our scenario analysis based on the recent phase shows that under the reference scenario, the CI would drop to 1.912 in 2030, which cannot achieve the Chinese government's policy goals. Under the outlook scenario, CI would fall to 1.638 in 2030, and the policy target can be achieved. Improving energy efficiency and optimizing energy consumption structure would be the most critical factors in reducing CI. As the only barrier, foreign trade should be guided by green trade policies. The study concludes that completing the relevant policies of the Chinese government's 14th Five-Year Report is critical to achieving CI reduction targets.