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Updated: Sep 27, 2025
11:15
HKUST-1 as a Heterogeneous Catalyst for the Synthesis of Vanillin
Published on: July 23, 2016
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Are there bubbles in the vanilla price?
Khalid Khan1, Chi-Wei Su1, Adnan Khurshid2
1School of Economics, Qingdao University, Qingdao, China.
Agricultural and Food Economics
|April 11, 2022
Summary
This study identifies five distinct price bubbles in the global vanilla (VNL) market. These bubbles are linked to specific events and market dynamics, highlighting the need for VNL market stability.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Economics
- Financial Market Analysis
Background:
- Global vanilla (VNL) prices are subject to significant volatility.
- Understanding price bubble dynamics is crucial for market stability and stakeholder planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate and identify historical price bubbles in the global vanilla market.
- To determine the specific events and factors contributing to the formation and rupture of these bubbles.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Generalized Sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) approach to detect time-varying bubbles.
- Analyzed historical data to correlate bubble periods with specific economic, environmental, and political events.
Main Results:
- Identified five distinct price bubbles in the global vanilla market.
- Bubble 1: Cyclone Hudah and cartel monopoly. Bubble 2: Regulation and export taxes. Bubble 3: Market policies, cartel abolition, exchange rates. Bubble 4: Political instability, weather. Bubble 5: Demand/supply shifts, speculation, quality, Cyclone Enawo.
- Bubble formation and rupture points align with significant real-world events.
Conclusions:
- VNL market stability requires managing supply fluctuations and price volatility.
- Reducing the influence of cartels and middlemen is vital for price stability.
- Direct negotiation between large companies and farmers is recommended for mutual benefit and market stability.
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