Design-Time Reliability Prediction Model for Component-Based Software Systems

Software reliability is prioritised as the most critical quality attribute. Reliability prediction models participate in the prevention of software failures which can cause vital events and disastrous consequences in safety-critical applications or even in businesses. Predicting reliability during design allows software developers to avoid potential design problems, which can otherwise result in reconstructing an entire system when discovered at later stages of the software development life-cycle. Several reliability models have been built to predict reliability during software development. However, several issues still exist in these models. Current models suffer from a scalability issue referred to as the modeling of large systems. The scalability solutions usually come at a high computational cost, requiring solutions. Secondly, consideration of the nature of concurrent applications in reliability prediction is another issue. We propose a reliability prediction model that enhances scalability by introducing a system-level scenario synthesis mechanism that mitigates complexity. Additionally, the proposed model supports modeling of the nature of concurrent applications through adaption of formal statistical distribution toward scenario combination. The proposed model was evaluated using sensors-based case studies. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed model from the view of computational cost reduction compared to similar models. This reduction is the main parameter for scalability enhancement. In addition, the presented work can enable system developers to know up to which load their system will be reliable via observation of the reliability value in several running scenarios.