Exploring Health Trends Prior to State Pension Age for The Netherlands up to 2040

Area of Science:

• Gerontology
• Public Health
• Health Economics

Background:

• State pension ages are increasing in Western countries to promote longer working lives.
• The health status of older adults to support extended working lives is not well understood.
• This study examines the future health of Dutch adults nearing state pension age.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore the projected health of Dutch adults aged 60 to 68 up to the year 2040.
• To assess the implications of future health trends for extended working lives.
• To inform policy on sustainable employability.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the Dutch Health Interview Survey (1990-2017) and the Dutch Public Health Monitor (2016).
• Health was assessed using combined scores of self-reported health and functional limitations (mobility, hearing, sight).
• Two health trend scenarios were projected: stable and improving health.

Main Results:

• In 2040, estimated good health for men (60-68) is 63-71%; for women, it's 64-69%.
• Moderate to poor health is projected for 29-37% of men and 31-36% of women in this age group.
• A significant proportion of older adults may experience health limitations affecting continued work.

Conclusions:

• A substantial percentage of older adults may have moderate or poor health, potentially hindering extended working lives.
• Policies promoting sustainable employability are essential, regardless of health trend scenarios.
• The findings highlight the need for proactive public health and labor policies to address the challenges of an aging workforce.