Health Care Implications of Terrorist Attacks in South Asia

The recent United States (US) troop withdrawal out of Afghanistan under a February 2020 US-Taliban agreement and the rapid concurrent collapse of the Afghan military, followed by the ascendance of the Taliban, has placed an international spotlight around the future of South Asian countries. Security threats, in particular, will likely escalate within the region and beyond, with significant concerns around the resurgence of terrorism and violence in the region. This study aims to provide an epidemiological description of all terrorism-related attacks in South Asia sustained from 1970 - 2019. These data will be useful in the development of education programs in Counter-Terrorism Medicine and provide an insight into potential attacks in the future.

Data collection was performed using a retrospective database search through the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). The GTD was searched using the internal database search functions for all events which occurred in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Mauritius, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka (collectively referred to as South Asia) from January 1, 1970 - December 31, 2019. Primary weapon type, primary target type, country where the incident occurred, and number of deaths and injuries were collated and exported for analysis.

In total, 23.69% of all terrorist attacks from 1970-2019 occurred in the South Asia region, causing 96,092 deaths and 141,333 non-fatal injuries. Of those, 50.1% of attacks in South Asia used explosives, 31.9% used firearms, 9.4% used unknown weapons, 5.9% used incendiary attacks, 2.3% were melee attacks, and <0.5% used chemical, biological, and other weapon types.

Over 88% of the attacks occurred in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India combined. While there has been a decline in attacks since a peak in 2014, there are concerns of a significant increase in terrorism activity in recent months which could impact an already fragmented health care system. The use of explosives and firearms as attack modalities accounted for 82.0 % of all weapon types used, but the impact of terrorism and conflict expands beyond simple death and casualty tolls.