Forecasting Stalking Recidivism Using the Guidelines for Stalking Assessment and Management (SAM)

Area of Science:

• Forensic Psychology
• Criminology
• Risk Assessment

Background:

• Stalking recidivism poses a significant public safety concern.
• Accurate risk assessment tools are crucial for managing stalking offenders.
• The Guidelines for Stalking Assessment and Management (SAM) is a tool for evaluating stalking risk.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the long-term risk of stalking recidivism.
• To assess the predictive validity of the Guidelines for Stalking Assessment and Management (SAM) ratings.
• To compare SAM's predictive accuracy with established violence risk scales.

Main Methods:

• A cohort of 100 stalking offenders from a forensic clinic was followed over an average of 13.47 years.
• Survival analyses using the Cox proportional hazards model were employed.
• The predictive validity of SAM risk factors and overall ratings was compared to the PCL:SV and VRAG.

Main Results:

• A composite score of SAM risk factors significantly predicted stalking recidivism.
• SAM risk factors demonstrated incremental validity over the PCL:SV and VRAG.
• Overall SAM risk ratings were not significant predictors of recidivism.

Conclusions:

• The presence of SAM risk factors is a valuable predictor of long-term stalking recidivism.
• SAM may be a useful tool for identifying specific risk factors in stalking cases.
• Further research is needed to refine SAM's application in clinical risk assessment for stalking.