SCORE2 versus SCORE in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease. Recently, the Systematic Coronary Risk Assessment (SCORE), a well-known CV risk algorithm, has been updated to a new predictive model (SCORE2). This new algorithm improves the identification of individuals at high risk of developing CV disease across Europe. Since carotid atherosclerosis is a predictor of future CV events and CV death, our objective was to compare the predictive capacity of SCORE2 versus SCORE for the presence of subclinical carotid atherosclerosis in patients with SLE.

Two hundred and thirty-five individuals over 40 years of age diagnosed with SLE were consecutively recruited in this cross-sectional study. SCORE and SCORE2 were calculated. The relationship of SCORE and SCORE2 with each other, and with the presence of subclinical carotid atherosclerosis (both carotid plaque and carotid intima media thickness -cIMT-), was studied.

SCORE2 and SCORE did not correlate with each other (Spearman's Rho = 0.125, p = 0.065). Although SCORE did not correlate with cIMT (Spearman's Rho = -0.022, p = 0.75), the correlation of SCORE2 with cIMT was statistically significant (Spearman's Rho = 0.367, p < 0.001). Similarly, SCORE did not show significant discrimination for the presence of carotid plaque [AUC = 0.521 (95% CI = 0.443-0.600)], while SCORE2 did [AUC = 0.720 (95% CI = 0.656-0.785)]. The difference between AUCs was found to be statistically significant (p < 0.001), thus showing that the prediction capacity of SCORE2 was significantly higher than that of SCORE.

In SLE patients, the ability of SCORE2 to predict the presence of subclinical atherosclerosis is higher than that of SCORE. According to our results, SCORE2, rather than SCORE, should be used in the CV risk stratification of patients with SLE. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.