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Area of Science:

  • Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
  • Population Genetics
  • Climate Change Biology

Background:

  • Species' geographic range limits are traditionally explained by gene flow across spatial environmental gradients.
  • Temporal environmental variation is known to affect population demography and evolution, but its role in range dynamics is less understood.
  • Existing models often overlook the dynamic nature of environments over time.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how temporal variation in environmental conditions influences population spread across spatial environmental gradients.
  • To compare range dynamics in temporally varying versus static environments.
  • To identify mechanisms by which temporal variation shapes species' range limits.

Main Methods:

  • Employed analytical and individual-based evolutionary models.
  • Simulated population spread across a spatial environmental gradient under different temporal variation scenarios.
  • Analyzed the interplay between temporal autocorrelation, spatial gradient steepness, and temporal variance magnitude.

Main Results:

  • Temporal variation significantly alters predictions of species range dynamics compared to static environments.
  • When temporal variance is uniform, species' fate (expansion vs. extinction) depends on the interaction between temporal autocorrelation and spatial gradient steepness.
  • Increasing temporal variance across the landscape creates stable range limits by inducing maladaptation that prevents local persistence.

Conclusions:

  • Temporal environmental variation is a critical factor in determining the success of species colonizing novel habitats.
  • The dynamics of temporal variation (autocorrelation and magnitude changes) play a pivotal role in establishing species' range limits.
  • Future studies on species distribution and adaptation must incorporate temporal environmental dynamics.