Forecasting CO₂ Emissions Using A Novel Grey Bernoulli Model: A Case of Shaanxi Province in China

Accurate predictions of CO₂ emissions have important practical significance for determining the best measures for reducing CO₂ emissions and accomplishing the target of reaching a carbon peak. Although some existing models have good modeling accuracy, the improvement of model specifications can provide a more accurate grasp of a system's future and thus help relevant departments develop more effective targeting measures. Therefore, considering the shortcomings of the existing grey Bernoulli model, in this paper, the traditional model is optimized from the perspectives of the accumulation mode and background value optimization, and the novel grey Bernoulli model NFOGBM(1,1,α,β) is constructed. The effectiveness of the model is verified by using CO₂ emissions data from seven major industries in Shaanxi Province, China, and future trends are predicted. The conclusions are as follows. First, the new fractional opposite-directional accumulation and optimization methods for background value determination are effective and reasonable, and the prediction performance can be enhanced. Second, the prediction accuracy of the NFOGBM(1,1,α,β) is higher than that of the NGBM(1,1) and FANGBM(1,1). Third, the forecasting results show that under the current conditions, the CO₂ emissions generated by the production and supply of electricity and heat are expected to increase by 23.8% by 2030, and the CO₂ emissions of the other six examined industries will decline.