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Nomogram for Predicting In-hospital Mortality in Infective Endocarditis Based on Early Clinical Features and
Zhao-Jun Yu1, Zhi Dou1, Jing Li1
1Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shengli Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China.
Aim:
The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram based on early clinical features and treatment options for predicting in-hospital mortality in infective endocarditis (IE).
Methods:
We retrospectively analyzed the data of 294 patients diagnosed with IE in our hospital from June 01, 2012 to November 24, 2021, determined independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and established a Nomogram prediction model based on these factors. Finally, the prediction performance of nomogram is evaluated by C-index, bootstrapped-concordance index, and calibration plots.
Results:
Age, abnormal leukocyte count, left-sided IE, right-sided IE, and no surgical treatment were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with IE, and we used these independent risk factors to construct a nomogram prediction model to predict in-hospital mortality in IE. The C-index of the model was 0.878 (95% CI: 0.824-0.931), and the internal validation of the model by bootstrap validation method showed a prediction accuracy of 0.852 and a bootstrapped-concordance index of 0.53.
Conclusion:
Our nomogram can accurately predict in-hospital mortality in IE patients and can be used for early identification of high-risk IE patients.
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