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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Sep 22, 2025

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
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Risk assessment model for international construction projects considering risk interdependence using the DEMATEL

Fengfeng Zhu1, Hao Hu1, Feng Xu1

  • 1School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering and State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.

Plos One
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Summary

This study introduces a new risk assessment model for international construction projects (ICP) to overcome cost overruns caused by risk interdependence and subjective ratings. The model uses historical data and DEMATEL analysis for more accurate risk management.

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Area of Science:

  • Construction Management
  • Risk Analysis
  • Project Management

Background:

  • International Construction Projects (ICP) face significant cost overruns due to complex risk management challenges.
  • Traditional risk assessment models struggle with risk interdependence and subjective input, leading to inaccurate evaluations.
  • Effective risk management is crucial for the success of ICP, impacting project selection and bidding.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a novel risk assessment model for ICP that addresses risk interdependence and subjectivity.
  • To enhance the accuracy of risk assessment by incorporating historical project data.
  • To provide an integrated framework for identifying, analyzing, and prioritizing risks in ICP.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) to quantify risk interdependence and its impact.
  • Incorporated historical project data (risks, probabilities, impacts, events) to mitigate subjective ratings.
  • Developed an integrated framework for comprehensive ICP risk management.

Main Results:

  • The proposed model effectively determines risk interdependence and its contribution to overall project risk.
  • By referencing similar historical projects, the model reduces subjectivity in risk assessment.
  • Validation through a real project demonstrates the model's practical applicability and accuracy.

Conclusions:

  • The developed risk assessment model offers a robust solution for managing risks in ICP.
  • It improves decision-making in project selection and bidding by providing objective risk insights.
  • International construction companies can leverage this model for enhanced project success and cost control.