Development and Validation of a Novel Nomogram for Predicting Vessels that Encapsulate Tumor Cluster in...

Vessels that encapsulate tumor cluster (VETC) is associated with poor prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Vessels that encapsulate tumor cluster estimation before initial treatment is helpful for clinical doctors. We aimed to construct a novel predictive model for VETC, using preoperatively accessible clinical parameters and imagine features.

Totally, 365 HCC patients who received curative hepatectomy in the Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center from 2013 to 2014 were enrolled in this study. Vessels that encapsulate tumor cluster pattern was confirmed by immunochemistry staining. 243 were randomly assigned to the training cohort while the rest was assigned to the validation cohort. Independent predictive factors for VETC estimation were determined by univariate and multivariate logistic analysis. We further constructed a predictive nomogram for VETC in HCC. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve. Besides, the decision curve was plotted to evaluate the clinical usefulness. Ultimately, Kaplan-Meier survival curves were utilized to confirm the association between the nomogram and survival.

Immunochemistry staining revealed VETC in 87 patients (23.8%). lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (>7.75, OR = 4.06), neutrophil (>7, OR = 4.48), AST to ALT ratio (AAR > .86, OR = 2.16), ALT to lymphocyte ratio index (BLRI > 21.73, OR = 2.57), alpha-fetoprotein (OR = 1.1), and tumor diameter (OR = 2.65) were independent predictive factors. The nomogram incorporating these predictive factors performed well with an area under the curve (AUC) of .746 and .707 in training and validation cohorts, respectively. Calibration curves indicated the predicted probabilities closely corresponded with the actual VETC status. Moreover, the decision curve proved our nomogram could provide clinical benefits with patients. Finally, low probability of VETC group had significantly longer recurrence free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) than the high probability of the VETC group (all P < .001).

A novel predictive nomogram integrating clinical indicators and image characteristics shows strong predictive VETC performance and might provide standardized net clinical benefits.