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Survival Tree01:19

Survival Tree

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Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
 Building a Survival Tree
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Related Experiment Video

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Wake-up Stroke Outcome Prediction by Interpretable Decision Tree Model.

Miloš Ajčević1, Aleksandar Miladinović1, Giovanni Furlanis2

  • 1Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy.

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics
|May 25, 2022
PubMed
Summary

Predicting outcomes for wake-up ischemic stroke (WUS) is crucial. This study developed an interpretable model using clinical and imaging data to accurately forecast good recovery in thrombolysis-treated WUS patients.

Keywords:
Classification and Regression TreeClinical outcomePredictive modelingWake-up stroke

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Area of Science:

  • Neurology
  • Medical Imaging
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Accurate outcome prediction in wake-up ischemic stroke (WUS) is essential for optimizing treatment and improving patient recovery.
  • Guiding therapeutic strategies requires reliable prognostic tools for WUS patients receiving thrombolysis.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop an interpretable Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model for predicting good outcomes (NIHSS 7-day < 5) in thrombolysis-treated WUS patients.
  • To identify key clinical and neuroimaging predictors of functional recovery in WUS.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a dataset of 104 WUS patients, incorporating demographic, clinical, and neuroimaging features.
  • Employed the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method with a Gini split criterion to build a predictive model.
  • Validated the model's performance using 5-fold cross-validation.

Main Results:

  • The developed decision tree model identified NIHSS at admission, ischemic core volume, and age as significant predictors.
  • The model achieved a predictive accuracy of 86.5%.
  • The Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC) was 0.88, indicating strong discriminative ability.

Conclusions:

  • An interpretable CART model effectively predicts good clinical outcomes in thrombolysis-treated WUS patients.
  • The model integrates easily accessible clinical and neuroimaging data for prognostic assessment.
  • This preliminary study highlights the potential of interpretable machine learning in stroke outcome prediction.