Real-World Effectiveness of the mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines in Japan: A Case-Control Study

The real-world effectiveness of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines in Japan remains unclear. This case-control study evaluated the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of two doses of mRNA vaccine, BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273, against the delta (B.1.617.2) variant in the Japanese general population in the period June-September 2021. Individuals in close contact with COVID-19 patients were tested using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). A self-administered questionnaire evaluated vaccination status, demographic data, underlying medical conditions, lifestyle, personal protective health behaviors, and living environment. Two vaccine doses were reported by 11.6% of cases (n = 389) and 35.2% of controls (n = 179). Compared with controls, cases were younger and had a lower proportion who always performed handwashing for ≥20 s, a higher proportion of alcohol consumers, and a lower proportion of individuals living in single-family homes or with commuting family members. After adjusting for these confounding factors and day of PCR testing by multivariate logistic regression analysis, the VE in the period June-July (delta variant proportion 45%) was 92% and 79% in the period August-September (delta variant proportion 89%). The adjusted VE for homestay, hotel-based isolation and quarantine, and hospitalization was 78%, 77%, and 97%, respectively. Despite declining slightly, VE against hospitalization remained robust for ~3 months after the second dose. Vaccination policymaking will require longer-term monitoring of VE against new variants.