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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Sep 21, 2025

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Published on: July 24, 2016

Applying early warning indicators to predict critical transitions in a lake undergoing multiple changes.

Elizabeth Rohde¹, Nolan J T Pearce¹, Joelle Young²

¹Department of Biology, Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario, Canada.

Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America

|May 28, 2022

Summary

Early warning indicators can help predict lake ecosystem changes, but their reliability varies. This study found mixed results for predicting lake recovery from eutrophication using these indicators.

Keywords:

critical transitions early warning indicators invasive species management actions resilience indicators

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Continuous Hydrologic and Water Quality Monitoring of Vernal Ponds

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Published on: November 13, 2017

Area of Science:

Ecology
Limnology
Environmental Science

Background:

Lakes are dynamic ecosystems prone to state transitions, some detrimental and difficult to reverse.
Predicting critical transitions in lake ecosystems is crucial for management and understanding ecosystem dynamics.
Evaluating management success requires understanding how state variables change over time.

Purpose of the Study:

To assess the agreement between early warning indicators (EWIs) and breakpoints in lake state variables.
To evaluate the effectiveness of EWIs in predicting lake recovery from eutrophication.
To determine the utility of EWIs for adaptive management and long-term lake monitoring.

Main Methods:

Retrospective analysis of long-term (1980-2019) monitoring data from Lake Simcoe, Canada.
Evaluation of 15 state variables and multivariate time series using statistical indicators (standard deviation, autocorrelation, skewness, kurtosis).
Identification of breakpoints in time series data to assess agreement with EWI trends.

Main Results:

Lake Simcoe transitioned from a eutrophic, algal-dominated state to improved water clarity and lower nutrient concentrations.
Secchi disk depth showed expected EWI trends prior to breakpoints, indicating recovery.
Total phosphorus and chlorophyll a exhibited more complex patterns, with inconsistent EWI trends.
Many identified breakpoints did not align with traditional critical transition theory.

Conclusions:

While EWIs showed promise for some state variables (e.g., Secchi depth), their application in predicting lake recovery is nuanced.
Inconsistent EWI trends suggest that not all breakpoints represent critical transitions.
EWIs are valuable for adaptive management and long-term lake monitoring, but further research is needed to refine their interpretation.