Prognostic factors in pediatric cases of drowning and near-drowning

Ninety-three cases of drowning or near-drowning in the pediatric age group between 1972 and 1976 were reviewed. A scoring system for prognostic factors was developed using one point for each of five unfavorable factors involved in the drowning or near-drowning of each patient. The prognostic factors were 1) age less than three years; 2) maximum submersion time estimated longer than five minutes; 3) resuscitation not attempted for at least ten minutes after rescue; 4) patient in coma on admission to hospital, and 5) arterial blood pH of less than or equal to 7.10. This scoring system significantly predicted the eventual outcome of patients who had experienced the postsubmersion syndrome. Patients with scores of less than or equal to 2 had a 90% chance of full recovery; those with scores of greater than or equal to 3 had only a 5% probability of survival. The early institution of resuscitative efforts was the single most important factor influencing survival.