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The First 110,593 COVID-19 Patients Hospitalised in Lombardy: A Regionwide Analysis of Case Characteristics, Risk
Nicole Mauer1,2, Greta Chiecca1, Greta Carioli1
1Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy.
Insights
COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in Lombardy peaked in March and November 2020. Older patients and those with comorbidities faced significantly higher mortality risks, highlighting critical public health needs.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Health Services Research
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic presented unprecedented challenges to healthcare systems globally.
- Understanding regional variations in disease burden and mortality is crucial for effective crisis management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the monthly trends of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in Lombardy, Italy during 2020.
- To determine the case-fatality rates (CFR) and identify predictors of mortality.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of de-identified COVID-19 hospitalization data from February 1 to December 31, 2020.
- Kaplan-Meier method for overall survival (OS) estimation.
- Cox regression models to assess the impact of patient demographics and comorbidities on OS.
Main Results:
- Peak hospitalizations and deaths were observed in March and November 2020.
- Patients aged 70 years and older had a substantially increased risk of death (up to 180 times higher).
- Comorbidities, including hypertension and diabetes, were associated with a higher risk of mortality.
Conclusions:
- The study provides insights into the pandemic's impact on the Italian healthcare system.
- Findings underscore the need for targeted interventions and robust health system planning for future crises.
- Data can inform regional and large-scale strategies for pandemic preparedness and response.
Abstract:
Objectives: To describe the monthly distribution of COVID-19 hospitalisations, deaths and case-fatality rates (CFR) in Lombardy (Italy) throughout 2020. Methods: We analysed de-identified hospitalisation data comprising all COVID-19-related admissions from 1 February 2020 to 31 December 2020. The overall survival (OS) from time of first hospitalisation was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. We estimated monthly CFRs and performed Cox regression models to measure the effects of potential predictors on OS. Results: Hospitalisation and death peaks occurred in March and November 2020. Patients aged ≥70 years had an up to 180 times higher risk of dying compared to younger patients [70-80: HR 58.10 (39.14-86.22); 80-90: 106.68 (71.01-160.27); ≥90: 180.96 (118.80-275.64)]. Risk of death was higher in patients with one or more comorbidities [1: HR 1.27 (95% CI 1.20-1.35); 2: 1.44 (1.33-1.55); ≥3: 1.73 (1.58-1.90)] and in those with specific conditions (hypertension, diabetes). Conclusion: Our data sheds light on the Italian pandemic scenario, uncovering mechanisms and gaps at regional health system level and, on a larger scale, adding to the body of knowledge needed to inform effective health service planning, delivery, and preparedness in times of crisis.
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