Trend and correlates of under-5 mortality in Ethiopia: A multilevel model comparison of 2000-2016 EDHS data

The main objectives of this article were to answer (1) what is the trend of under-5 mortality from 2000 to 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey? (2) What are the correlates that contribute to under-5 mortality in Ethiopia?

The data used in this study were obtained from 2000, 2005, 2011, and 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data. We used multivariable three-level logistic regression model to predict under-5 mortality, with sex of a child, preceding birth interval, birth order, place of delivery, weight of child at birth, and plurality as first-level variables; mother's education level, wealth index, mother's age at first birth, and sex of household head as second-level variables; and residence and survey time as third-level variables.

The under-5 mortality declined from 166 deaths per 1000 live birth in 2000 to 67 deaths per 1000 live births in 2016. The odds of under-5 mortality among children with rural residence were 2.81 times greater than among children with urban residence. Moreover, the odds of under-5 mortality were higher among mothers who gave birth with preceding birth intervals of less than 24 months. A child whose preceding birth interval was less than 24 months had a 0.235, 0.174, 0.143, and 0.107 predicted probability of dying in the years 2000, 2005, 2011, and 2016, respectively.

Child mortality varied across time in Ethiopia. Understanding both the time-varying nature of the correlates and changes in the type of their associations can help to explain some of the decreases in child mortality rates. Direction and/or presence of a relationship between these correlates and child mortality significantly interacted with time. Therefore, to mitigate the burden of under-5 mortality, the concerned body should provide awareness to the community.