Generation estimation and material flow analysis of retired mobile phones in China

The generation estimation of retired mobile phones is launched with the sales and new method using the revised sales data and amount of the subscribers. Several assumptions have been made due to the insufficient sources of the data. The sales data of legal mobile phones are calculated with the authoritative and continuous official data. The sales data of smuggled and counterfeit mobile phones in China are also estimated based on the behavior data collected from the questionnaires. The results of generation estimation show that there are 636.52 million mobile phones retired in 2020, compared with 14.44 million in 1999 and several negative values in 2000, 2001, and 2008. The annual total mass of retired mobile phones in China escalated with the contributions of both the increasing generation amount and constant mass of the single unit. There are 50,921.60 ton of mobile phones retired in 2020 compared with 1155.20 ton in 1999, while the peak is 58,131.20 ton in 2019. There are 26,066.80 ton of retired mobile phones are stockpiled in 2020, while 16,152.40 ton and 8702.40 ton of retired mobile phones are reused as a whole unit and recycled, respectively. In the retired mobile phones that are recycled, 4600.50 ton material is recovered and 1216.50 ton components are reused, while 2885.40 ton residues need final disposal. The amount and dynamic characteristics of metals in the retired mobile phones are also calculated. Based on the results, several policy implications are made to improve sustainable management system of retired mobile phones in China.