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A Poisson-multinomial spatial model for simultaneous outbreaks with application to arboviral diseases
Alexandra M Schmidt1, Laís P Freitas2, Oswaldo G Cruz3
1Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, 12367McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
Statistical Methods in Medical Research
|June 6, 2022
Summary
Arboviral diseases like dengue, Zika, and chikungunya in Rio de Janeiro are linked to environmental factors. Social development reduces disease risk, while green space and population density influence specific disease prevalence.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Environmental Health
- Public Health
Background:
- Dengue, Zika, and chikungunya are arboviral diseases (AVD) transmitted by *Aedes aegypti*.
- Rio de Janeiro has endemic dengue and experienced a joint AVD epidemic in 2015-2016.
- Similar symptoms and limited lab confirmation cause misdiagnosis and data uncertainty.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the total AVD cases and disease allocation in Rio de Janeiro neighborhoods.
- To assess the association of AVD risk with environmental and socioeconomic variables.
- To estimate disease probability based on available covariates.
Main Methods:
- A Poisson model was used for the total number of AVD cases.
- A multinomial model conditioned on the total was applied for disease allocation.
- Environmental and socioeconomic covariates were analyzed.
Main Results:
- A one-unit increase in social development index reduced AVD relative risk by 28%.
- Lower green space proportion increased chikungunya odds versus dengue/Zika.
- Increased population density decreased Zika odds vs. dengue but increased chikungunya odds vs. dengue and Zika.
Conclusions:
- Socioeconomic and environmental factors significantly influence AVD distribution and risk.
- Understanding these factors is crucial for targeted public health interventions.
- The model provides insights into disease-specific risk factors within AVD.
Keywords:
Baseline-category logit modelBayesian paradigmconditional autoregressive distributiondisease mappingMore Related Videos
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