Future land-use competition constrains natural climate solutions.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Research
• Land Use Planning

Background:

• Natural climate solutions (NCS) are vital for climate mitigation but face competition from socioeconomic demands like food security and urban development.
• Population growth exacerbates land-use competition, potentially limiting the effectiveness of NCS strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project the impact of cropland and urban expansion on the climate mitigation potential of NCS.
• To quantify the loss in NCS mitigation potential due to projected land-use changes under different socioeconomic pathways.

Main Methods:

• Mapping areas suitable for 9 key NCS strategies and estimating their mitigation potential.
• Overlaying NCS areas with projected future cropland and urban expansion maps (2020-2100) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
• Calculating the resulting mitigation potential loss for each NCS strategy.

Main Results:

• NCS mitigation potential is projected to decrease by 0.3-2.8 GtCO2 yr-1 (4-39%).
• Cropland expansion to meet future food demand is the primary driver of this reduction.
• The tropics, which hold abundant NCS potential, are disproportionately affected.

Conclusions:

• Urgent, prioritized action in tropical regions is essential for maximizing NCS benefits.
• Realistic and sustainable climate policies must account for land-use competition impacts on NCS.
• Integrating land-use planning with climate mitigation strategies is critical for achieving climate goals.