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COVID-19 waves: variant dynamics and control

Abhishek Dutta1

  • 1Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269, USA. abhishek.dutta@uconn.edu.

Scientific Reports
|June 6, 2022
PubMed

Insights

COVID-19 variant waves undermine public health efforts. Mathematical modeling reveals the unvaccinated fueled the Delta variant surge, but planned vaccination strategies can effectively control infections.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health Interventions

Background:

  • COVID-19 variants continue to drive infection waves, challenging existing control measures.
  • Previous interventions like vaccines and restrictions have faced limitations against variant-driven surges.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model and analyze the impact of COVID-19 variants on infection dynamics.
  • To identify the primary drivers of the second major novel coronavirus wave in the US.
  • To develop and evaluate a feedback control-based vaccination strategy.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered-vaccinated-deceased (SIQRVD) coupled dynamics model.
  • Incorporated vaccination, quarantine, and restriction policies as modulating factors.
  • Derived a feedback control strategy for planned vaccination.

Main Results:

  • The model demonstrated that the Delta variant drove the second major COVID-19 wave in the US.
  • The unvaccinated population was identified as the main driver of the rapid surge in infectious cases.
  • The proposed vaccination strategy effectively suppressed the surge in infections.

Conclusions:

  • Variant-driven COVID-19 waves necessitate adaptive control strategies.
  • Targeting vaccination efforts towards the unvaccinated is crucial for mitigating surges.
  • Feedback control offers a promising approach for optimizing vaccination strategies to control infectious disease outbreaks.

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