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Updated: Sep 20, 2025

An In Vitro Model for Measuring Immune Responses to Malaria in the Context of HIV Co-infection
Published on: October 6, 2015
HIV and COVID-19 co-infection: A mathematical model and optimal control
N Ringa1,2, M L Diagne3, H Rwezaura4
1Data and Analytic Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, 655 W 12th Ave, Vancouver, BC, Canada V5Z 4R4.
Insights
This study models COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS co-infection, finding that prevention strategies for both diseases significantly reduce new co-infection cases. HIV prevention and COVID-19 treatment are key to managing the dual epidemic burden.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- Investigating the epidemiologic synergy between COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS is crucial for understanding disease dynamics.
- Co-infections pose significant public health challenges, necessitating integrated modeling approaches.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and analyze a mathematical model assessing the impact of COVID-19 on HIV dynamics and vice-versa.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of various intervention strategies against COVID-19 and HIV co-infections.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of sub-models for HIV-only and COVID-19-only dynamics, including computation of basic reproduction numbers.
- Local and global asymptotic stability analysis of disease-free and endemic equilibria.
- Model fitting to real-world COVID-19 data from South Africa using MATLAB's fmincon function.
Main Results:
- HIV prevention measures substantially decrease the burden of COVID-19 co-infections.
- Effective COVID-19 treatment reduces co-infections with opportunistic diseases like HIV/AIDS.
- COVID-19 and HIV prevention strategies individually averted approximately 10,500 new co-infection cases.
Conclusions:
- Integrated prevention and treatment strategies are vital for managing co-infections.
- Mathematical modeling provides valuable insights into disease synergy and intervention impact.
- Targeted interventions for either COVID-19 or HIV can yield significant reductions in co-infection rates.
Abstract:
A new mathematical model for COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS is considered to assess the impact of COVID-19 on HIV dynamics and vice-versa. Investigating the epidemiologic synergy between COVID-19 and HIV is important. The dynamics of the full model is driven by that of its sub-models; therefore, basic analysis of the two sub-models; HIV-only and COVID-19 only is carried out. The basic reproduction number is computed and used to prove local and global asymptotic stability of the sub-models' disease-free and endemic equilibria. Using the fmincon function in the Optimization Toolbox of MATLAB, the model is fitted to real COVID-19 data set from South Africa. The impact of intervention measures, namely, COVID-19 and HIV prevention interventions and COVID-19 treatment are incorporated into the model using time-dependent controls. It is observed that HIV prevention measures can significantly reduce the burden of co-infections with COVID-19, while effective treatment of COVID-19 could reduce co-infections with opportunistic infections such as HIV/AIDS. In particular, the COVID-19 only prevention strategy averted about 10,500 new co-infection cases, with similar number also averted by the HIV-only prevention control.
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