HIV and COVID-19 co-infection: A mathematical model and optimal control

N Ringa1,2, M L Diagne3, H Rwezaura4

  • 1Data and Analytic Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, 655 W 12th Ave, Vancouver, BC, Canada V5Z 4R4.

Insights

This study models COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS co-infection, finding that prevention strategies for both diseases significantly reduce new co-infection cases. HIV prevention and COVID-19 treatment are key to managing the dual epidemic burden.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Investigating the epidemiologic synergy between COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS is crucial for understanding disease dynamics.
  • Co-infections pose significant public health challenges, necessitating integrated modeling approaches.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and analyze a mathematical model assessing the impact of COVID-19 on HIV dynamics and vice-versa.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of various intervention strategies against COVID-19 and HIV co-infections.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of sub-models for HIV-only and COVID-19-only dynamics, including computation of basic reproduction numbers.
  • Local and global asymptotic stability analysis of disease-free and endemic equilibria.
  • Model fitting to real-world COVID-19 data from South Africa using MATLAB's fmincon function.

Main Results:

  • HIV prevention measures substantially decrease the burden of COVID-19 co-infections.
  • Effective COVID-19 treatment reduces co-infections with opportunistic diseases like HIV/AIDS.
  • COVID-19 and HIV prevention strategies individually averted approximately 10,500 new co-infection cases.

Conclusions:

  • Integrated prevention and treatment strategies are vital for managing co-infections.
  • Mathematical modeling provides valuable insights into disease synergy and intervention impact.
  • Targeted interventions for either COVID-19 or HIV can yield significant reductions in co-infection rates.

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