Changes in Obesity Prevalence Attributable to Ultra-Processed Food Consumption in Brazil Between 2002 and 2009

Objectives: To quantify the impact of temporal changes in the consumption of ultra-processed foods on obesity trends in Brazil between 2002 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed data from two Household Budget Surveys carried out in 2002/2003 (n = 182,333) and 2008/2009 (n = 190,159), which provided information on household food acquisition and individuals' weight and height. We examined the association between ultra-processed foods consumption and obesity and quantified the fraction of increase in obesity prevalence attributable to the rise in the consumption of ultra-processed foods. Results: From 2002 to 2009, there was an increase in the obesity prevalence from 9.9% (95% CI 9.3; 10.4) to 13.2% (12.8; 13.7) while the contribution of ultra-processed foods to total energy consumption raised from 14.3% (13.4; 15.1) to 17.3% (16.5; 18.1). Ultra-processed foods consumption was positively associated with obesity prevalence. More than one quarter (28.6%) of the increase in obesity prevalence was attributable to the rise in the consumption of ultra-processed foods in the period. Conclusion: We found that the rise in the consumption of ultra-processed foods played a major role on the increase of obesity epidemic in Brazil.